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I hear that scientists don’t really know for sure that climate change is even happening. Is this true?

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	There is overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is occurring. Scientists have identified unmistakable trends of global warming in several indicators, including satellite data, ice cores, glacial melt, sea ice melt, sea level rise, melting permafrost, temperature analyses, and more. Paleoclimatology and climate modeling have also contributed to this consensus. Scientists agree not only that (1) the earth is getting warmer, but also they agree that (2) it is happening faster than ever before, (3) the major cause is human-generated CO2 emissions that result primarily from burning fossil fuels, (4) that CO2 emissions in turn increase the uptake of water vapor (which acts as another greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere, and (5) if we don’t reduce CO2 levels as soon as possible and halt this rapid rise in temperature, severe consequences will follow. Where scientists differ somewhat is on the details – such as how fast climate change will happen, or what the exact effects might be on smaller regional scales. It is the nature of science to keep asking questions, and for the state of knowledge to expand as a result. Climate models do change. Run through super-computers, climate models track hundreds of variables including ocean currents, jet stream circulation, average rainfall, vegetation patterns, soil moisture, presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, etc. In order to gain more accuracy scientists continually add new variables to these models, and also refine the statistical samples to smaller and smaller sizes. Thus, scientists are constantly rechecking and refining their original projections. We know that climate change is happening, but we’re not sure how it will turn out – since we are not entirely certain of the final results, how do we make hard decisions about our energy choices and policies? The answer – we engage in risk management. The stakes are too highly not to act prudently, and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. As General Gordon R. Sullivan, USA (Ret.), Former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, talked about the similarities between climate change and war: “We never have 100% certainty. We never have it. If you wait until something is 100% certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield.”
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